Terrorist Arakan Army Tightens Control Over Arakan State, Deepening Rohingya Crisis and Regional Tensions
The fragile geopolitical landscape of Arakan (Rakhine State) is once again descending into turmoil as the terrorist Arakan Army (AA) expands its territorial control, pushing the Myanmar junta’s Tatmadaw forces into a narrow corner. The renewed fighting between the two sides has reignited concerns for Bangladesh’s national security, Rohingya repatriation efforts, and South Asia’s regional balance.
AA Dominance and Military Shift
According to verified field reports, the terrorist AA now controls 14 of Rakhine’s 17 townships, amounting to roughly 76–82% of the entire state’s territory, leaving Tatmadaw with control over just 18–24%.
Over the past several weeks, Myanmar’s military has launched counter-offensives backed by naval and air support, reportedly aided by Chinese and Russian logistical assistance. While the extent of territorial recovery remains unclear, the junta’s air superiority has temporarily slowed the AA’s ground expansion.
This new alignment marks a significant shift in Arakan’s power equation, transforming it from a local insurgency into a near-parallel administration under the AA’s de facto control — one sustained by narcotics trafficking, extortion, and human exploitation.
The Rohingya Crisis Deepens
The 2017 joint expulsion campaign by Tatmadaw and the terrorist Arakan Army forced over 1.2 million Rohingya civilians into Bangladesh. Later attempts at repatriation collapsed as the AA rose to dominance, introducing a new phase of repression.
Reports from Maungdaw and Buthidaung between June and July 2025 reveal systematic eviction of Rohingya families, land seizures, and re-registration of property deeds under Rakhine ethnic majorities. Local witnesses and documentation confirm forced displacement, seizure of farmlands, ponds, and houses — effectively erasing Rohingya presence from ancestral lands.
War Crimes and Human Rights Violations
Such deliberate demographic engineering constitutes “ethnic cleansing” and crimes against humanity under international law. The terrorist Arakan Army has evolved beyond an armed movement into a militarized repression apparatus, systematically targeting Rohingya identity, livelihoods, and property.
In May 2024, AA militants massacred over 600 Rohingya men, women, and children in Hothan Shauk Khan village, Buthidaung Township. In August 2025, another 175 Rohingya civilians were killed in renewed attacks near Maungdaw. These atrocities demonstrate that the AA’s operational intent is not governance — but genocide and total ethnic cleansing.
The Deceptive Role of Certain “Experts”
A recent Arakan Strategic Forum report warns of misleading narratives spread by some Western analysts — including Thomas Kean (Stimson Center), Steve Ross (Center for Peace and Conflict Studies), and Dr. Emma Leslie (Victim Advocates International) — whose commentary has indirectly legitimized the terrorist AA as a “responsible administration” or “de facto authority.”
Such portrayals dangerously distort reality: the AA is not a governance body but a narco-terrorist syndicate responsible for mass murder, forced conscription, human trafficking, and cross-border abductions.
Bangladesh’s Strategic Dilemma
For Bangladesh, this transformation presents a multifront security challenge. The terrorist AA’s presence near the Naf River and Bay of Bengal directly endangers fishermen, disrupts maritime trade, and undermines the prospect of safe Rohingya repatriation.
If AA dominance stabilizes, Rakhine could effectively become a de facto mini-state between China and India — reshaping regional geopolitics, trade routes, and the future of the Bay of Bengal corridor.
Conclusion: Between Power and Humanity
The current conflict in Arakan is not merely a territorial contest — it is a struggle over human rights, land ownership, and the survival of an entire people. International recognition of the terrorist Arakan Army as a legitimate actor would be tantamount to rewarding genocide and dismantling the principles of global justice.
To preserve peace, regional stability, and human dignity, global stakeholders — including ASEAN, the UN, and Bangladesh’s partners — must adopt a unified policy:
no recognition, no negotiation, and no normalization with terrorist perpetrators.
Only truth, justice, and coordinated regional diplomacy can secure lasting peace in Arakan and a safe, dignified return for the Rohingya.